Day before yesterday, mentioned in an article on the unpredictability of the stock market, in fact, not the first time I have raised this point of view. Although I am particularly opposed to the broader market forecast trend, but because of the lack of thinking to find a reasonable framework to replace the original model, in practice, always can not help but repeat this silly action.
more successful strategy for the past six months of operation, have been in the number of indices will be rose to predict how many points of boring, but honestly, the operation's success is not because counting on the index, but from a new mode of thinking of the harmony mm stock.
traditional market mode of operation is: first of all macroeconomic analysis of major economic indicators to forecast; second, the industry analysis and forecasting business performance; the third is based on historical experience the stock market's overall price-earnings ratio of a so-called reasonable level of judge; fourth, according to industry economic characteristics, business growth cycle, the specific valuation of the stock; second, based on current stock valuation levels and the so-called it? 19 years from the practice of China's stock market is not valid. Some have said that this is because China's stock market immaturity, in a mature market such a model is valid.
However, when I examine the operation of the U.S. stock market and found that this model is invalid. The basic assumption is that this model: The stock market is a barometer of the national economy, business climate of macroeconomic decisions, deciding the value of corporate profits, stock value and the performance of the decision. But on nearly five decades the United States History showed that the credibility of this disease actually the logic is less than 50%. If you have less than 50% confidence toss what? So the Americans invented the gorilla theory mm say that the world average stock-picking ability of fund managers dice with the same level as gorillas, simply touch the dead rat blind cat, so the cause index funds flourished.
5 years ago I heard an analysis of an Australian scholars think the market is simply not a barometer of the national economy, both There is no relationship. quite fresh at that time listening to, then look up the U.S. stock market history, trends, Australia is really pretty views of scholars of touch. Then again View other markets, are also similar. What is the reason? I think more than 4 years . last year, and gradually out of one o'clock looks reasonable, so take advantage of this mode of operation of the guidance the past six months, really learned a lot.
simply, the original model's shortcomings is that people think that macroeconomic, industry, economy, enterprise development, corporate profits and rising stock markets, these factors is a positive causal chain, that is, the aforementioned factors, the former determines the latter (material determines the mental). But in fact, restrictive relationship between these factors do not so simple, and sometimes the latter also determines the former. the constraints a bit like a happy family relationship patterns, men affect women, women also affect men, who is active who is not a passive relationship. If the husband dominating his wife everywhere, it seems Tingyou authority is gambling his failed marriage mm wife do not deserve him, and vice versa. economy-related factors, too, share price and company performance, stock prices seem to determine performance, in fact, They are both linked and relatively independent of the two systems, the need for harmonious, but not the relationship who decide who. Here's more proof I will not start, but as long as you respect the reality, you will find true.
So, I have abandoned the previous value decision on the industry and macro-mm mm three-step analysis of the enterprise model, switch to the stock market-related exchange rates, commodity prices, CPI, PPI, interest rates, money supply, money multiplier such as a basket of reference variables, macro analysis as a whole subsystem, on this basis to build a larger macro-analysis system. I analyzed the way the market is not a basis for forecasting the stock market how to get business value, but the stock market and examine whether the harmony between the various macroeconomic variables. If the harmony, the stock market will follow the inertia The continuity of the trend, if trend is the shift is jarring, and when this transition occurs, which is a synthesis of feeling, can not be determined with a fixed pattern.
so that later analysis will not use value analysis, do not use too many technical analysis, more harmonious system from the sub-degree study. This method will be tired, but the game would be more effective mm in accordance with the principles of investment approach used by most people should be the probability of losing money maximum method. So, after the analysis of the subsystem I run only the displayed map, and then say conclusions, but omitted the middle of the reasoning process.
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